The paper, by researchers at the University of Southampton, modeled the economic effects of future sea level rise, using various projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future carbon emissions and global warming, along with various models of future economic growth, population growth, and population movement.
According to the IPCC’s projections, sea level will rise 25 to 123 centimeters, depending on whether humanity does a lot to tackle climate change or just coasts along with business-as-usual. Using those models, the researchers concluded 0.2 to 4.6 percent of the world’s population will be flooded annually by the end of the century, resulting in annual losses of 0.3 to 9.3 percent of global GDP.
For reference, 5 percent of the world’s population in 2100 could mean 600 million people many of whom will live in deeply impoverished regions like southern Asia. As for GDP, 9.3 percent of that could be over $100 trillion.
The researchers also looked into scenarios in which people around the world attempt to protect themselves and their coasts by expanding dikes, levees, and other protection systems. The paper concludes such efforts could reduce the damage from flooding by two or three orders of magnitude, at a cost of $71 billion per year under the most demanding circumstances.
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