Q&A: What lies ahead in 2015 for Chinese economy?

BEIJING - It is almost certain that China will post its lowest growth rate in more than a decade in 2014, but experts seem uncertain about what will happen in 2015.

Here we review the outlook and risks for Chinese economy in 2015:

 Is the economy sliding toward a hard landing?

Growth in 2014 looks likely to have sagged below 7.5 percent. This year, it could potentially dip lower, with property downturn and industrial overcapacity still being the main drags.

The government's efforts to balance reform with growth will also exert a downward pressure, but it will be a soft landing rather than a sharp contraction, as the broader economy and job market remain healthy.

There have been signs of a rebalancing, with services accounting for a greater share of output than manufacturing; and consumption accounting for a larger share of gross domestic product (GDP) than fixed asset investment.

Moreover, policies, such as the abolition of registered capital requirements for new firms and the replacement of business tax with value-added tax, will provide dividends.

Government think tank economists have lowered forecasts for GDP growth for 2015, with the rate hovering between 7 percent and 7.3 percent.

Read more: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/

Beijing in first smog alert of year

Beijing is blanketed with thick smog on Tuesday, a sharp contrast to the blue skies during the APEC meetings in the capital in November.

Hazy days set to last until Friday

Beijing issued its first smog alert of 2015 on Tuesday, with the PM2.5 index passing the 200 level.

The alert will probably remain in force until Friday, the municipal environmental authority said.

Based on the official daily air quality forecast, the capital issued a yellow alert and adopted emergency measures to rein in emissions on Sunday, one day before the smog descended. A yellow alert is the third-highest level among four grades.

Shanghai, which emerged from three days of smog on Monday, will experience another round of air pollution on Wednesday, according to the regional air quality forecast center.

The air quality forecast, which is as important as the daily weather forecast, has begun to attract more attention, especially from people living in large cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which witness frequent air pollution.

By the end of 2014, cities in three major industrial zones - the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta - were required to provide a daily air quality forecast, according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection.

This will be expanded this year to more cities that have the requisite equipment and technology.

Beijing, one of the first cities to issue such forecasts, can predict changing air quality over five days. This enables it to provide accurate statistics for the authorities to take emergency measures to reduce air pollutants a day before smog arrives.

Xie Shaodong, an environmental professor at Peking University, said: "The technology is not a problem. With better cooperation and smoother exchanges of information between meteorological and environmental bureaus, the forecast can be more accurate."

Yu Yong, a spokesman for the National Meteorological Administration, said it plans to deepen cooperation on air pollution forecasting through regular discussions and exchanges of technology.

According to a development plan released on Dec 17 to help control air pollution, the meteorological administration will build more laboratories in six regions to strengthen weather forecasting by 2020.

Under the plan, by that year China will have built a well-functioning weather modification system and have made progress in experiments on reducing fog and smog through human effort.

Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/

Intercity train connects Beijing and 'city of beds'

Commuters living in Yanjiao, a town about 35 km east to Beijing, now have more options to go to work in Beijing after an intercity bullet train started operating on Monday.

Train D9022 left Yanjiao at 6:46 am and arrived at Beijing Station at 7:17 am on Monday. All the 706 tickets of the train were sold out, a railway official said.

Zhou Hongyu, one of the first passengers on the maiden trip of Yanjiao-Beijing bullet train, said that the new train almost halved the daily two-hour-long journey to her office.

"I used to take bus before transferring to subway to my office. The bus is extremely crowded and it's always a struggle to get on it."

For some others, punctuality is the top concern.

Peng, 37 year old, said ideally it takes an hour to reach his office. But that is not often the case on the congested roads of Beijing.

"Sometimes the commuting time can stretch to two hours or more. Now the bullet train can take me to Beijing in half an hour," said Peng.

But the timing and cost of the train deter some commuters.

"A second-class seat on the bullet train sells at 10 yuan ($1.6), which will nearly double the cost of bus journey," veteran commuter Wu Zejian told reporter ahead of the operation of Yanjiao-Beijing bullet train. "Besides, my home is quite a distance away from the railway station, so it is not a bargain for me to take the train," added Wu.

"Although the train is punctual and fast, but I can only take the morning train because the evening train leaves Beijing at 5:50 pm and I will not be able to catch it. I hope more shuttle services will be added between Beijing and Yanjiao in the future," said Zhou Hongyu.

Whether Zhou's wish will be fulfilled is in doubt because of limited transport capacity on the line, according to the head of Yanjiao railway station.

Yanjiao, which literally means the suburb of Beijing, is home to over half a million residents, many of them moved to the small town in recent years after the house prices in Beijing skyrocketed.

Despite the low house price and rents, commuters have to take the cost of excruciating journey to their work place in Beijing. After a long day on the road, they have no extra energy to do anything other than go to bed, thus earning the town the name "city of beds".

Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/

Controversy erupts after college blames victims

A screenshot of the website of Modern College of Northwest University shows a notice that says the Shanghai tragedy proves its holiday policies are "absolutely correct".

BEIJING - A college in Northwest China has been lambasted for issuing a controversial statement about the fatal New Year's Eve stampede in Shanghai, which left 36 people dead.

The Modern College of Northwest University in Xi'an City, capital of Shaanxi province, said on Friday that the tragedy proved that its holiday policies were "utterly correct".

In late December, the college reportedly banned its students from celebrating Christmas and instead on Christmas Eve made them watch traditional cultural films, which invited a storm of criticism.

Its official microblog account said that Chinese traditional festivals and culture were fading away as more people embraced Western traditions.

In an editorial titled "Shanghai stampede tragedy proves our holiday management utterly correct", posted on its website, the college said that if such a stampede occurred on Christmas Eve in Xi'an, the value of the college's holiday management would be "more self-evident".

It continued to bash public holidays by saying that the youth had become "overly infatuated" with Western holidays after decades of westernization in China, and that the stampede was a result of loose in college and university management.

The post has become a hot topic on the Internet, with some angry netizens calling the college "shameless" for justifying its value through the tragedy.

"It looks to me that the college is taking pleasure in others' misfortune," read one comment.

"In their logic, 2014 saw many plane crashes and I never took a flight, so that proves me 'utterly correct'?" said another netizen.

Others are more tolerant, saying that even though the wording might be a little rough, in essence the article made sense.

The college, perhaps in reaction to the media frenzy over its post, changed the title to "Deeply grieving the loss of our compatriots in the Shanghai stampede tragedy", but the content of the post remains unchanged.

Tan Kejian, a research fellow with the School of Sociology under the Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences, said the college's attitude toward holiday celebrations was negative and should not be adopted.

"You should not stop eating because of having hiccups," Tan said, quoting an old Chinese saying.

Instead of banning celebrations, authorities should ramp up preventive measures to avoid similar disasters, he added.

Tens of thousands of people assembled in Shanghai's historic riverfront walk, in the Pudong financial area, on Wednesday night to ring in the New Year. Most of those that lost their lives were young people.

Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/